United States: As the presidential elections 2024 are around the corner and people are looking forward for their new President, the younger population of the US shown their interest in favouring Donald Trump.
According to several recently conducted polls, Trump has become a choice for young Americans, as per reports published in Politico. Experts have been calling it a generational shift as, for decades, Republican presidential candidates have been overwhelmingly supported by the older US population.
Trump is becoming a choice for young Americans; the analytics are surprising, as no Republican has won young voters since George HW Bush’s landslide victory in 1988. After such numbers, the experts have highlighted that there is a chance that the electoral polls will once again encounter challenges in accurately gauging the presidential race, following their previous underestimation of Trump’s support in the last two (2) presidential elections. It is plausible that discrepancies lie within the statistics of young voters, potentially resulting in an underestimation of Biden’s support, or conversely, within the figures of older voters, potentially indicating a stronger backing for Trump than currently perceived or even a combination of both scenarios.
While stating about the recently conducted polls, the director of polling for the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and an expert on polling young voters – John Della Volpe, said, “Seems like we know how to poll white, middle-aged people really well. But if they’re younger, older, Black, Hispanic — there seems to be no consensus about what’s the best practice these days.”
What do the recent polls suggest?
In recent days, a fresh NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist College nationwide survey revealed Trump leading Biden by 2 points among Millennial and Gen-Z voters, while Biden maintained an overall advantage among voters aged 45 and above, encompassing those from the Silent and Greatest generations.
A Fox News poll from the previous month indicated Trump surpassing Biden by a substantial 18 points among voters below the age of 30 in a direct matchup — with an even more pronounced 21-point lead when independent and third-party candidates were factored in, according to the reports published by POLITICO.
However, not all polls indicate such a stark age-based contrast.
Biden stands at a mere 50 percent among voters under 30 in the Wall Street Journal’s surveys conducted at both the national and swing-state levels. Although this still maintains a lead of about 10 points over Trump, it marks a significant decline compared to the 2020 election results — and roughly aligns with his share of the senior vote, which stands at 48 percent.
A recent poll by Quinnipiac University, released just last week, portrayed Biden with a 20-point lead over Trump among voters under 35, a margin close to what the president achieved in 2020 as per exit polls and other voting subgroup estimates. Nevertheless, this survey also showcased Biden with an 8-point advantage among voters aged 65 and above, signaling a potential reversal from past elections where older voters leaned towards Republicans.
On the surface, one might view this as a favorable exchange for Biden: Younger demographics historically exhibit lower voter turnout compared to seniors. Census data reveals that 48 percent of voters under 25 participated in the 2020 election, contrasting with 73 percent participation among those aged 65 to 74 and 70 percent among those 75 and older.
However, garnering support from older demographics doesn’t seem to translate into a significant boost for Biden in the polls, as they consistently portray him locked in a tight race with Trump, with the Republican holding a narrow lead in most swing states.
Could Trump be experiencing a surge in youth support?
Certain polls suggest that Trump is either on par with — or slightly ahead of — Biden among young voters. Yet, the validity of this trend remains debatable — is it a genuine shift or merely an aberration?
The evidence is inconclusive, and surveys of the overall electorate include only a limited sampling of young voters. Moreover, the challenges of reaching out to young respondents have escalated, raising the likelihood of inaccuracies.
Traditional phone surveys, still utilized by some media outlets and academic institutions, may struggle to capture the perspectives of young voters.
Abby Kiesa, deputy director of CIRCLE, a nonpartisan research institute at Tufts University, Massachusetts, notes, “Even if they’re reached on a cell phone, their response rate is significantly lower,” highlighting the hurdles in achieving a representative sample of young people through phone surveys.
However, the persistent decline in youth support for Biden across various survey methodologies suggests that it may not solely be attributable to methodological discrepancies.
A recent survey by the electoral analysis website Split Ticket, employing text-message interviews, portrayed Biden (35 percent) leading Trump (25 percent) and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (23 percent) among young voters, albeit far from the substantial margin enjoyed by the incumbent president over Trump in 2020, as POLITICO outlined.
The disparity between Biden and Trump diminishes notably when respondents are queried about independent and third-party candidates, indicating that young voters abandoning Biden aren’t necessarily flocking to Trump in return. In such surveys, young voters express a greater inclination towards candidates beyond Biden and Trump compared to other age groups.
Since 2000, young Americans have predominantly favored Democratic candidates, reaching a peak during Barack Obama’s initial election in 2008. While there isn’t a singular definitive source for subgroup voting estimates, exit polls, and other surveys generally indicate Biden’s 2020 victory over Trump by a margin exceeding 20 percentage points.
Nonetheless, young voters have exhibited higher rates of support for third-party candidates, notably in 2016, when Trump secured the presidency despite losing the popular vote. According to estimates by Catalyst, the Democratic data firm, 10 percent of voters under 30 opted for third-party candidates eight years ago, compared to 8 percent among those aged 30-44, 5 percent among 45-64-year-olds, and 3 percent among voters aged 65 and older.
This year’s surveys unmistakably capture widespread dissatisfaction with Biden among young voters, even if they don’t consistently indicate Trump gaining traction. The Split Ticket poll reveals unfavorable opinions towards both Biden (68 percent) and Trump (70 percent) among over two-thirds of young voters. Notably, Trump’s “very unfavorable” rating of 61 percent exceeds Biden’s 44 percent.
The demographic critical for Biden’s success includes the 24 percent with a “somewhat unfavorable” view of him.
Trump’s appeal to Black voters is encapsulated in his mug shot
These figures may reflect genuine sentiments, or they could stem from polling errors that will only surface post-election. Moreover, shifts may emerge from overlapping subgroups, such as age, socioeconomic status, and ethnicity.
John Della Volpe, the Kennedy School pollster and young voter specialist, notes the erratic public poll figures concerning Hispanic voters, particularly the youth demographic. Doug Levy, a pollster at Siena, highlights that Biden’s decline in support among Black voters emanates predominantly from young Black voters, as older Black voters overwhelmingly continue to support the Democrat.
A gender disparity also emerges: Trump actively courts young men across racial and ethnic lines, potentially gaining ground, while young women remain aligned with Biden.
The forthcoming months will furnish additional data on the evolving coalitions. However, determining the veracity of these shifts may prove elusive. Even after the election, the debate will likely persist, with conclusive insights from gold-standard post-election analyses emerging weeks or even months later, well beyond the inauguration of the next president.